John T. Reed’s news blog

Walter Russell Mead’s column in today’s WSJ (page A15) is fascinating. It may be nonsense. I have no expertise in the subject. Pending someone refuting it, it seems mandatory reading to me given that nuclear war is at stake..I have asked the question “What is all this talk that comes out of Putin about restoring Russia to greatness? Russia was never great. It is an imaginary past.” Mead’s column explains it not as a Putin delusion, but as a national delusion..If so, we may be in for a nuclear war because the entire Russian nation suffers from insane delusions of...

The biggest tank battle in history was the Battle of Kursk in 1943. Kursk is about 250 miles east north east from Kyiv. . Much talk about a repeat about to happen. . 1. They did not have Javelins and NLAWs in 1943. 2. Kursk is great tank country: flat farm fields, BUT NOT YEAR ROUND. That area has frozen fields in winter—fine for tanks—and maybe dry ones in summer—also good for tanks. The 1943 Battle of Kursk took place July 5th to August 23, 1943. In the SPRING, however, that area has epic mud. It is now Spring. ....

I got a notice to renew my drivers license. Don’t know why. It expires in 2028. Maybe my age. Had to do it in person because of eye test and written test. . I checked the hours. It is now at a local indoor mall. To my surprise, they open at 8AM there. . Relatively efficient for the DMV which is sort of the quintessential example of government worker sloth. . I wanted my veteran status in the license, but they said I needed a paper I never heard of to prove it. Never mind. . A year or so...

There is a big WSJ article today about whether the Fed can bring about a "soft landing" from high inflation. . They omit a possibility other than a "soft" or "hard landing"---permanent death of the USD. That never happened before. But we never had a debt-to-GDP ratio of 126% before either. . If we raise interest rates 10% now, that increase federal spending on us government interest to 10% x $30T which is $3T a year. US government tax revenues are about $4.5T a year so all federal spending other than defense, federal workers Social Security and maybe Medicare would...

To tame inflation, interest rates must exceed inflation. Inflation for March only was double digits. That means interest rates of 15% or higher. So probably not the best time to pass up 5% interest rates to wait for 2.5% to come back. I think 5% is lower than any in my adult other than the recent few years. Historically, 5% has been a bargain. And it is not subjective. Interest rates less than inflation rates mean borrow. Generally, American consumers can pay off loans whenever rates fall. There used to be prepayment penalties. Probably still are on commercial loans.